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Olga Simakova: What is the balance of migration in Kazakhstan?

Olga Simakova: What is the balance of migration in Kazakhstan?
"More worrisome on a regional scale today is the tendency to increase youth migration when, when traveling abroad, young people remain there for permanent residence," expert Olga Simakova, specially for CABAR.asia, analyzes migration issues in Kazakhstan .
Over 25 years of sovereignty in the countries of the former USSR, not only radical political and socio-economic changes occurred, but significant demographic transformations.
One of the demographic phenomena that, for various reasons, has recently attracted the greatest attention from both the general public and individual stakeholders, is migration, or spatial mobility of the population.
At present, in Kazakhstan, as in other post-Soviet republics, all the main types of migration movements are observed: external (international) and internal, permanent and temporary; legal (legal), unregulated and illegal (illegal); voluntary and forced, etc. [1] Freedom of movement and choice of place of residence is one of the basic personal human rights included in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1948 (Article 13) and enshrined in the Basic Laws of the vast majority of countries of the world, including Kazakhstan (Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Article 21 ). But, realizing his personal right to move, the individual becomes a participant of much more complex processes than the change of the address of residence, and his actions become the object of research and analysis.
In the field of our interest within the framework of this article will be the issues of external migration in Kazakhstan. It should be noted that since 1991 Kazakhstan has experienced several waves of external migration. According to Elena Sadovskaya [2], the country experienced a "stage of turbulent and spontaneous development", during which "migration directions changed significantly, new species were formed, migration policies, legislation, and governance institutions were developed and reformed" [3]. To date, compared with the 1990's, the annual number of emigrants decreased by 10 times # 8212; from 300,000 to 30,000, and from 2004 to 2012 there was a positive balance of migration.
Nevertheless, over the years of sovereignty, Kazakhstan, according to experts, suffered significant losses. So, in the period from 1991 to 1998 gg. due to external spontaneous migration, the country lost almost 2.5 million people, or 15% of the total population as of January 1, 1992. [4] In particular, the country lost a large German diaspora, the number of which according to the 1989 census was 956 thousand people, and at the beginning of 2014 the number of Kazakhstani Germans was 181 928 people (1.06% of the country's population).
Essential deformation has undergone and continues to undergo both the actual demographic and socio-professional structure of society and its intellectual and educational potential. Only in the last three years (2013-15), the total number of specialists with higher, incomplete higher and secondary vocational education (among persons over 15 years of age) irretrievably emigrating from Kazakhstan, was 47.4 thousand people, and their share in one 2015 was 74.9% of the total number of departed. In 2015, 17,418 specialists left the RK, of which 26.1% with technical education, 13.2% with economic education, 9.1% with pedagogical education, 4.8% with medical education (of the total number of specialists) and t . [5]
Particular attention in the issue of migration is paid to the analysis of such structural features as the dependence of the intensity of migration flows on the ethnicity of migrants.
Analysis of statistical data shows that during the period from 2013 to 2015 the flow of immigrants to the country tends to decrease. If in the 4th quarter of 2013 the number of arrivals to the country was 24.1 thousand people, in 2015 this figure was 16.7 thousand people.
60% of new arrivals were ethnic Kazakhs. In second place - Russian. Despite the fact that in real numbers the number of Russians moving to Kazakhstan for permanent residence permanently for three last years remains practically unchanged, in the ethnic structure of immigrants their share has increased significantly from 13.6% in 2013 to 17, 4% in 2015
Figure 1. Immigration in Kazakhstan from the 1st quarter of 2013 to the 1st quarter of 2016, thousand people. [6]
Unfortunately, an increase in the immigration flow does not compensate for the loss of the country due to emigration. According to the Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of National Economy of the RK, if in 2013 the country emigrated 24.4 thousand people, then in 2015 - already 30.1 thousand. During this period (from 2013 to 2015, ) the trend continues to increase the number of emigrants among Russians, Germans, Kazakhs and Koreans. So, 70-71% of emigrants are ethnic Russians. In second place Germans - 6-8%, in third place Ukrainians - 6-7%, in fourth place Kazakhs & # 8212; 4-5%.
The northern and north-eastern regions of the country bordering the Russian Federation are at greatest risk of emigration. They leave to seek permanent residence abroad, mainly residents of Karaganda (4,6 thousand people at the end of 2015), East Kazakhstan (4,2 thousand people), Pavlodar (3,4 thousand people) and Kostanay (3,3 thousand people) regions. The least number of citizens migrates from the western and southwestern regions of Kazakhstan, in which the Kazakh population predominates. Thus, 523 people emigrated from the Mangistau Oblast in 2015, 170 from the Atyrau Oblast, and only 59 from the Kyzylorda Oblast. [7]
Figure 2. Emigration in Kazakhstan from the 1st quarter of 2013 to the 1st quarter of 2016, thousand people.
Analysis of statistical data shows that the most favorable period for external migration mobility is the 3rd quarter of the year. During this period, the peak of emigration processes in Kazakhstan is observed. This can be related both to the warm season, convenient for moving, and with the beginning of the academic year. But, if you look at immigration movements, then the most favorable period is the 4th quarter of the year.
The balance of migration in Kazakhstan for the last three years is calculated with a minus sign. Unfortunately, in the information space in this regard, the main emphasis was placed on the high level of migration of Russians and representatives of European ethnic groups. But this interpretation is ambiguous. It is necessary to understand that when calculating the balance of migration, two indicators are taken into account: the number of immigrations and the number of emigrants. In this case, the analysis of the dynamics of both indicators over the past three years suggests that the increase in the migration balance is largely affected by a 1.5-fold decrease in the immigration flow, i.�. entry to the country, from 24077 people in 2013 to 16670 people in 2015, than the increase in emigration.
Figure 3. Balance of migration in Kazakhstan from Q1 2013 to Q1 2016, thousand people.
If we talk about popular destinations, then most often Kazakhstanis move to Russia - there last year left 25.6 thousand people. The second place in this indicator is Germany - 2 thousand people, followed by Belarus (605 people), Uzbekistan (364 people) and the United States (265 people). Also among Kazakhstanis wishing to leave the country, such destinations as Canada and Israel are popular.
It is noteworthy that the results of polls of the country's population testify to the low migration potential of Kazakhstanis. The overwhelming majority of pollees questioning whether they would like to move to another place (city / village, region, country) respond negatively. The share of those who state the intention to move does not exceed 25%.
Most often, migration is forced, associated with certain circumstances in the life of a person or his family. Most often in the migration involved an age group of 25 to 40 years, representing an economically active population. According to the results of sociological surveys (polls of the population), the main motive for emigration from Kazakhstan at the moment is socio-economic problems, based on dissatisfaction with the current level of life and prospects for the person's self-realization, including in the sphere of labor relations. Also important are family-personal circumstances. In this case, the main motives are taking care of the health and future of your family. As practice shows, the unfavorable ecological situation in the region of residence or the inability to provide professional education to their children can outweigh the scales in favor of emigration. [8]
As the main migration patterns that have developed in Kazakhstan, E. Sadovskaya singles out the following:
first, the diversification of migratory species with a predominance of labor and educational migration; secondly, the prevalence of temporary migrations outside the country with a tendency to become permanent (moving to a permanent place of residence and acquiring citizenship); Thirdly, over the past 10-15 years, there has been an increase in female and youth migration; Fourthly, the role of diasporas and ethnic minorities in the organization and maintenance of migrations, their involvement in addressing migrants' issues is growing. [9]
Unfortunately, the data of the Committee on Statistics clearly show that over the last three years there has been a trend in the growth of the emigration flow in Kazakhstan. In 2014, it grew by 25% compared to 2013 and, according to the results of 2015, is maintained at the same level. It should be noted that the issue of migration in Kazakhstan received the greatest resonance in the information sphere due to the high migration share of the Russian and Russian-speaking population from the country. But if you look at the ethnic structure of emigrants, then all three years it does not change, despite the growth in the total number of emigrants. Those. talk about a new wave of migration of Russians from Kazakhstan without additional research, at least not correctly. More worrisome on a regional scale today is the trend towards an increase in youth migration, when leaving for study abroad, young people remain there for permanent residence.
Nevertheless, from the point of view of demographic analysis, the current migration situation in Kazakhstan can not be called dramatic. One can agree with the opinion of E. Sadovskaya that in recent years Kazakhstan "entered a period of relatively regulated movements." [10] The processes of population transfer do not take place at the expense of the most important demographic indicator - the final population. In the country there is an annual growth in the population, which, first of all, depends on natural growth, and not on mechanical (migration).
[1] E.Sadovskaya. International migration in Kazakhstan in the period of sovereignty // �. "Kazakhstan-Spectrum". 2016/1 (75) - p.9.
[2] Elena Sadovskaya & # 8212; Expert of the Research Council on Migration in the CIS at the Center for Migration Studies of INP RAS, Candidate of Philosophy.
[3] E.Sadovskaya. International migration in Kazakhstan in the period of sovereignty // �. "Kazakhstan-Spectrum". 2016/1 (75) - p.9.
[4] Demographic Yearbook of Kazakhstan. Astana, 2015.
[5] Kazakhstan-Spectrum. Science Magazine. 2016/1 (75) - p.20.
[6] Hereinafter, the figures used in the Fig. Statistical parameters. Statistical Bulletin. 3/2016. - Astana, 2016 - 47 pp., Statistical indicators. Statistical Bulletin. 1/2015. - Astana, 2016 - 65 sec.
[7] Arman Kudaibergenov. Russians, Germans and Ukrainians leave Kazakhstan - statistics. April 22, 2016. http://365info.kz/2016/04/vse-bolshe-kazahstantsev-emigriruet-za-rubezh-komstat/
[8] Simakova O. Emigration of Russians: An invitation to meditation. "Kazakhstan-Spector", 2016/1 (75).
[9] E.Sadovskaya. International migration in Kazakhstan in the period of sovereignty // �. "Kazakhstan-Spectrum". 2016/1 (75) - p.9.
Author: Olga Simakova, Public Foundation "Center for Social and Political Research" Strategy "# 187; (Kazakhstan, Almaty)
The author's opinion may not coincide with the position of the editorial board of CABAR.asia.
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